Ian Hogarth, a well-known AI investor, remembered a recent tale in which a researcher in machine learning with whom he was familiar informed him that “from now onwards,” we are on the verge of generating artificial general intelligence (AGI)”. This revelation was somewhat startling.
This is not a universal view, Hogarth noted, adding that estimates range from a decade to half a century or more before AGI materializes.
Nevertheless, there is a conflict between AI businesses’ explicitly AGI-seeking objectives and the worries of those who understand machine learning, including specialists in the field and the general public.
After asking the researcher, “Shouldn’t you tell people about what’s going on if you think we could be so near to something possibly so dangerous? The investor recounted that he was obviously struggling with the weight of his responsibilities, but like many others in the area, he appeared to be drawn along by the pace of development.
Like many other parents, Hogarth claimed that his thoughts turned to his kid, who is four years old, after this experience.
He noted that he progressively went from shock to rage as he thought about the possible environment in which his son would grow up. It seemed profoundly wrong that a few private firms could make important decisions without democratic oversight that may have an impact on every person on Earth.
The investor responded to the question of whether those vying to create the first real AGI have a plan to slow down and allow the rest of the world a voice by noting that, despite the feeling of a “them” versus “us” conflict, he has to admit that, as someone who has invested in more than 50 AI startups, he, too, is a part of this community.
Hogarth stated that since a three-letter acronym cannot adequately express the magnitude of what AGI would entail, he will refer to it as what it actually is: God-like AI. A super intelligent machine that can change the environment around it, learns and grows on its own, and understands its surroundings without supervision.
To be clear, we are not yet here, continued Hogarth. But it is quite challenging to forecast with any degree of accuracy when we will arrive due to the nature of technology. God-like AI may be a force beyond our comprehension or control, one that could lead to the destruction or obsolescence of the human species.
The investor has dedicated his career to funding and promoting AI research, even going so far as to found his own venture capital firm and publish an annual “State of AI” report. However, something appears to have changed, as the race between a select group of businesses to develop God-like AI now seems to be accelerating quickly.
Hogarth reflected that they had no monitoring and did not yet know how to pursue their goal safely. Without knowing what is on the other side, they are sprinting towards the finish line.
The AI mega-funder admitted that he hasn’t gained much momentum with his peers despite his ambitions to invest in firms that will tackle AI more responsibly.
Unfortunately, Hogarth stated that he believed the race would go on. It will probably take a significant misuse incident, perhaps even a tragedy, to alert the public and the authorities.
